Bills-Rams Finish Week 5 with MNF Showdown; ALCS and NLCS in Action
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We rallied for a 6-6 CFB Saturday (-.28 units), and had a winning NFL Sunday (6-3, +2.7 units), going 4-1 in the prop market, and have another one tonight for the MNF game. For the season, we are up 20.7 units in CFB/NFL in this newsletter.
The Bills and Rams finish off Week 5 in a game that could be a Super Bowl preview.
NFL Season Record
Sides: 5-3 (0-1 in Wk5)
Totals: 11-5 (2-1 in Wk5)
Props: 20-14 (4-2 in Wk5)
Overall: 36-22, +11.55 units
CFB Record
Week 0: 1-2, -1.20u
Week 1: 4-4, +0.45u
Week 2: 8-1, +5.40u
Week 3: 4-4, -0.40u
Week 4: 6-1-1, +4.90 units
Week 5: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 6: 3-4, -1.28 units
Total: 30-18-1, +9.17 units
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But you're here for betting analysis, so let's get to it.
We have our Monday night card as well as some picks and previews for the MLB postseasons. We also have NFL Week 5 lines to get an early jump on.
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Now, let's get to the picks.
Today's Newsletter
Inside Today's Issue
🎯 Best Bets from MNF
🏈 Prop It Like It's Hot - MNF
🏈 NFL Week 5 early look
⚾ MLB
🏀 WNBA
📊 Stat of the Day
📈 Weekend Recap
🎙 Around Betting with Bearman
🎯 Today's Best Bet
NFL Season Record
Sides: 5-3 (0-1 in Wk5)
Totals: 11-5 (2-1 in Wk5)
Props: 20-14 (4-2 in Wk5)
Overall: 36-22, +11.55 units
Buffalo Bills at LA Rams ( -3.5, 54.5) - Monday Night Football
- This line was -3 or shorter most of the week, which had me leaning Rams, and I even took them in a pool at -2.5. -3.5 is a big move through -3, but it also tells us that is where the action is because the books do not like to move it through that key number.
- To me, the difference comes down to Buffalo's secondary not being able to stop the Rams WR on the friendly turf at SoFi. Bills allow a 6.8% opposing passing TD rate, 29th in the NFL. They are allowing the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs and 2nd-most TDs to WRs.
- I'm not a fan of this total. I don't take many overs and when they are this high, it's for a reason. These two teams are capable of scoring on every drive.. with Bills having No. 1 scoring offense and Rams the 2nd best total offense. But the Rams also 2nd in total defense and have had a lot of trouble finishing drives this year.
- So, we will Prop It Like It's Hot! Kyren Williams had 10 receptions (on 13 targets) for 67 yards in Week 4, after getting 6 receptions for 70 yards vs. the Broncos in Week 3.